Analysis
The percentage-point trick, and why headlines keep falling for it
A move from 1% to 2% is not a “100% rise” in any sense a reader should act on. Yet the framing survives because it sells.
There are two honest ways to describe a rate that moves from one percent to two. It has risen by one percentage point, or it has doubled. Both are true; only one is useful, and the press almost always prints the louder one. The choice is rarely an accident — the alarming version travels further.
The tell is whether the base is disclosed. A “100% increase” in a risk that was negligible to begin with is still, in absolute terms, negligible. When a figure arrives stripped of its denominator, treat it as a marketing decision rather than a finding T1. The number may be real; the framing is doing separate work.